№ 01
Bayes' Theorem
P(A|B) = P(B|A)·P(A) / P(B)
Given that the morning is foggy, what is the probability the day will end well?
Concept Portfolio
№ 02
Central Limit Theorem
X̄ → N(μ, σ²/n)
Average enough small things, and you arrive — eventually — at a bell.
№ 03
Monte Carlo
π/4 ≈ N_in / N_total
Throw enough darts, in enough directions, and you can measure π.
№ 04
Poisson
P(k) = (λᵏ·e⁻ᵏ) / k!
For events that are rare, independent, and stubbornly average over time.
№ 05
Random Walk
E[X_n] = 0
Each step uncertain. The journey, on average, goes nowhere — and yet it travels far.
№ 06
Birthday Problem
P(match) ≈ 0.50 @ n = 23
A small room is a coincidence factory. The shock is how few people it takes.