YESANG

예상 — Prediction

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Your Prediction

Current question:

Will AI-generated films win a major award by 2028?

Unlikely 50% Certain

Active Predictions

Technology

Will AGI be achieved by 2030?

Community consensus:
23%
Closes: Dec 31, 2030
Culture

Will streaming surpass cinema revenue globally in 2026?

Community consensus:
67%
Closes: Dec 31, 2026
Global Events

Will a new nation state be formed by 2028?

Community consensus:
15%
Closes: Dec 31, 2028
Technology

Will quantum computers break RSA-2048 by 2030?

Community consensus:
8%
Closes: Dec 31, 2030
Culture

Will a non-English song top the Billboard Hot 100 for 4+ weeks in 2027?

Community consensus:
41%
Closes: Dec 31, 2027
Global Events

Will the global population begin declining before 2030?

Community consensus:
12%
Closes: Dec 31, 2030

Crowd Consensus

AI replaces 50% of jobs by 2035
31%
Mars colony by 2040
18%
Universal basic income in 5+ countries by 2030
44%
Electric vehicles >80% of new car sales by 2032
56%
Nuclear fusion commercially viable by 2035
22%

Resolved

CORRECT

AI will pass the bar exam by 2025

Resolved Mar 2024 · 78% predicted correctly
WRONG

Self-driving taxis in 10 US cities by 2025

Resolved Jan 2026 · 52% predicted incorrectly
CORRECT

Generative AI used in 50% of marketing by 2025

Resolved Nov 2025 · 63% predicted correctly
WRONG

Metaverse daily active users exceed 100M by 2025

Resolved Dec 2025 · 71% predicted incorrectly

Your Score

Brier Score 0.18 Top 15%
Calibration
82%
Resolution
65%
Sharpness
74%
47 Predictions Made
12 Resolved
9 Correct