The Compliance Premium: Why Regulated Markets Are Diverging from Voluntary
Compliance carbon markets have entered a new era of price discovery. The widening spread between EU ETS allowances and voluntary credit prices now exceeds $70 per tonne, reflecting fundamentally different supply-demand dynamics. As Article 6 mechanisms mature, the convergence many predicted has instead become a growing divergence driven by regulatory scarcity signals.
Industrial emitters face increasing urgency as the EU's revised cap trajectory removes 4.2% of allowances annually from 2026. Meanwhile, voluntary markets struggle with integrity concerns and oversupply of lower-quality offsets.