P(success) = 0.73 ♦ Bayesian posterior updated ♦ Monte Carlo: 10,000 iterations complete ♦ Confidence interval: [0.68, 0.79] ♦ Expected value converging ♦ P(success) = 0.73 ♦ Bayesian posterior updated ♦ Monte Carlo: 10,000 iterations complete ♦ Confidence interval: [0.68, 0.79] ♦ Expected value converging ♦

Distributions

NORMAL μ=0, σ=1

POISSON λ=4.2

BINOMIAL n=100, p=0.73

EXPONENTIAL β=2.1

BETA α=2, β=5

hwaklyul.com

확률

The Grand Probability Salon

0.7300 CURRENT POSTERIOR

In this court, every outcome is weighed, every possibility is measured, and every certainty is revealed as merely the most probable of many alternatives. Enter, and observe the behavior of chance.

Probability Wheel

SEGMENTS: 5 · TRIALS: 10,000

> P(X > μ + 2σ) = 0.0228 |