The chance of an unlikely event. Do you feel lucky?
Powerball Jackpot
The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are approximately 1 in 175 million. You're more likely to be struck by lightning 10 times in your lifetime.
False Positive Risk
If a disease affects 1 in 1000 people and a test is 99% accurate, a positive result only means ~9% chance you actually have it. Most positive results are false alarms.
Per Flight
Your chance of dying in a plane crash is about 1 in 11 million per flight. You're 100 times more likely to die in a car accident.
Per Year
Your annual odds of being struck by lightning are about 1 in 375,000. Most people struck survive, but 10% are fatal.
If a coin landed heads 5 times in a row, tails is "due" to come up.
Each flip has 50/50 odds. History doesn't influence future flips.
A person looks suspicious, so they're probably guilty.
You must consider how common guilt is in the base population.
Can you find the one highlighted person among 1000?
One of these 1000 people is highlighted. Can you spot them?