IF THEN
CAUSE EFFECT causality.club
contradicts supports causes disproves supports
Proposition A

Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

The repeated co-occurrence of two events does not establish that one causes the other. Temporal precedence alone is insufficient without a demonstrated mechanism of action.

[1] ref. Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, 1748
Counterpoint

Interventionist Causation

If manipulating variable X under controlled conditions consistently changes Y, then X causes Y. Intervention is the gold standard for establishing causal links.

[2] ref. Woodward, Making Things Happen, 2003
Objection

The Problem of Overdetermination

When multiple sufficient causes exist for the same effect, isolating the cause becomes impossible. Every effect is overdetermined in a complex system.

[3] ref. Lewis, Counterfactuals, 1973
Synthesis

Probabilistic Causation

C causes E if and only if C raises the probability of E, ceteris paribus. Causation is not deterministic but probabilistic in all observable systems.

[4] ref. Suppes, A Probabilistic Theory of Causality, 1970
Evidence

Granger Causality in Time Series

X Granger-causes Y if past values of X contain information that helps predict Y beyond what Y's own past provides. A statistical, not metaphysical, claim.

[5] ref. Granger, Investigating Causal Relations, 1969
Rebuttal

Causal Pluralism

There is no single correct analysis of causation. Different contexts demand different causal concepts: mechanistic, counterfactual, probabilistic, interventionist.

[6] ref. Hall, Two Concepts of Causation, 2004

EVIDENCE

“We may define a cause to be an object followed by another, where all the objects similar to the first are followed by objects similar to the second.”
-- David Hume, 1748
“The cement of the universe is not logical necessity but regular conjunction.”
-- J.L. Mackie, 1974
“Causation is something that happens in the world, not something that happens in our heads.”
-- Nancy Cartwright, 1983
“Every event has a cause is not a truth of logic but a claim about the structure of reality.”
-- Bertrand Russell, 1913
“To explain an event is to provide some information about its causal history.”
-- David Lewis, 1986
“Correlation is not causation but it sure is a hint.”
-- Edward Tufte, 2006