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lesson cartridge / orbit 00

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A tiny 16-bit observatory for seeing uncertainty before naming it. Dice constellations blink, priors hum, and every result arrives as a teachable pixel.

FIELD NOTE: uncertainty is not fog; it is a map with glowing coordinates.
P(A)bootingn=08signal warm
coin chamber / sample space

Two faces make the first room.

Before probability can measure an event, the observatory lays out the possible outcomes. Heads and tails are not guesses; they are the complete floor plan for this experiment.

Count the doors first. Then ask which door glows.

Ω={H,T}heads: 1 / tails: 1P(H)=1/2
branching hall / possible futures

Every fork keeps its fraction.

A path can split, and each split carries a small label. Multiplying along a route turns wandering sprites into a precise route probability.

ROUTE READOUT: P(path)=P(first step) × P(second step | first)
P(B|A)fork activeroute #12future sampled
bayes console / signal filter

New evidence tilts the bands.

The prior starts as a warm expectation. A noisy signal passes through the teal scope. The posterior is the recalibrated belief after the instrument has listened.

posterior0.72signal detectednoise ↓
noise garden / random drift

Enough pixels become a pattern.

Single observations jitter like dust. Repeated samples gather into distribution hills, and the observatory can finally separate static from signal.

SCAN BAND: confidence is a corridor, not a pinprick.
n=64cluster formingmean beacon± band
final observatory / probability map

The lesson aligns overhead.

Sample spaces, branches, signals, and noisy gardens are not separate tricks. Together they form a patient way to reason when the world has not yet resolved.

summaryΩ mappedbelief updatedexperiment ready