0.130.270.410.620.89
P(B|A)
prior → sample
0.08
0.34
0.58
sample_017 p=0.500? likelihood wets the glass assumption ☂ posterior / pool IBM Plex Sans KR** Korean explanatory calm interface text; Spline Sans Mono probability fragments
hwakryul.com The Probability Rainhouse

확률, probability

확률

The Probability Rainhouse

Fog Prior

Before evidence has a shape, every maybe hangs from the ceiling as dark water. Move or scroll and listen to a maybe fall.

P(future) = rain / all skies
listen to a maybe fall

Sample Shower

Indistinct drops become observed paths.

Each sample strikes invisible pegs inside the cylinder. Some hesitate. Some split. Some disappear into the shadow of 확 before returning as decimals on the pane.

.102.618.271.443.809.037

Conditional Sluice

The gate does not tell the water where to go. It changes the room the water remembers. A route marked P(B|A) opens only after the first basin ripples.

P(A∩B) / P(A)
A|B

Rare Lightning

A low-probability route flashes yellow for one breath.

Unlikely is not impossible. It is a narrow wet crack across the conservatory glass: visible, violent, and gone before the bowls agree on what happened.

misread risk: #FF4D5E
posterior

Posterior Pool

All outcomes ripple at once.

The rainhouse becomes quiet. The basins hold no certainty, only updated water: cooler, clearer, and still choosing how to reflect the next sky.

P(hypothesis|rain) ∝ likelihood × prior