P(x)

What are the chances, that this moment is exactly as it should be?

01a question of weight

Σ P = 1

fig. 01 · normal distribution, informally

Probability is not a promise. It is a soft insistence — the sum of every path a moment could take, gathered into a quiet number between zero and one. Here, we trace those paths the way a gardener rakes sand: patiently, in parallel lines, never quite finishing.

02a fallacy, gently corrected

the coin has
no memory

H
T
theorem · 02

Tap the statement if it sounds true:

P(H|7H) = 0.5 — the coin is blameless. It forgets every toss the instant it lands. The "owed" tails exists only in the ledger we keep inside our heads.

03a garden of shapes

distributions,
rendered in stone

N(μ, σ²)
normal
U(a, b)
uniform
P(λ)
poisson
Exp(β)
exponential

Every distribution is a sculpture of expectation — a shape the world tends toward when no one is watching. The bell rests at the center. The uniform lies flat, indifferent. The Poisson spikes wherever the unlikely has arrived on time.

04the probability sandbox

sit with the
uncertainty

A meditative toy. Roll the die, flip the coin. Watch the numbers drift toward their expectation, like leaves settling on still water.

last roll
rolls0
mean0.00
expected3.50
01
02
03
04
05
06
H
T
last flip
flips0
heads0
P(H)0.000
P(H) → 0.5