Bell Mountain
A normal distribution seen as a mountain range — the peak is the mean, the slopes are standard deviations, and the foothills trail off into the long tail of the improbable.
P(μ ± σ)
0%
the landscape of chance
bability.pro
Six panels, each a probability fundamental transplanted into a nature diorama. Tilt your head — the grid is on purpose.
A normal distribution seen as a mountain range — the peak is the mean, the slopes are standard deviations, and the foothills trail off into the long tail of the improbable.
Each drop is an event. When density grows thick, certainty condenses. Count the drops and you count the likelihood that you forgot your umbrella.
Cumulative probability as growth — each ring is another datum, another season of observation. The widest band is where most of the story lives.
Twelve sampled draws from a multivariate distribution, each a gust with a direction and a weight. A compass of chance — every arrow is a vote in the data's gentle democracy.
Discrete probability is a branch of bright berries — each one is either plucked or not, a Bernoulli trial ripening in sunlight. Six trials, six outcomes, one branching story.
Before data arrives, we have only the fog of priors — a soft haze of assumption. As evidence accumulates, the horizon sharpens into posterior clarity.
More data, tighter banks. Fewer points, wider doubt.
With ten thousand observations, the river is a disciplined line — banks close, current strong. The interval shrinks and truth swims in the middle lane.
Halfway down, doubt loosens its grip; the channel bends and widens. This is where the interesting mistakes get made — and where the best stories begin.
Every river ends wide. Certainty eventually empties into the ocean of the known — but the surprise is always upstream, where the water is cold and fast.
Priors trickle in as side-streams. Each one nudges the channel a little — no single tributary dominates, but together they shape the whole course.
Weather-probability hybrids illustrated as botanical specimens — each plant a scenario, each leaf a likelihood.
"the sunflower of certainty"
Blooms when posterior exceeds 0.85. Requires full evidence, partial shade of doubt. A cultivar favored by frequentists.
"moderate ambiguity"
The 50/50 flower. Petals open and close on each observation. Sensitive to bias; best kept in a rotating planter.
"storm of the improbable"
Rare bloom, heavy fragrance. Appears only in tails beyond ±3σ. Collected by black-swan enthusiasts and catastrophic underwriters.
"the fogflower"
Grows in wide priors. Petal count unknown — possibly none, possibly infinite. Caution: do not attempt to count in low light.
◆ Zone V · Fade
What lies past the final mountain is unknown by design. Probability asks us to be generous with not-knowing — to hold the fog as carefully as we hold the forecast. The best maps leave room for the unmeasured.