確率 — the mathematics of maybe
The measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. A number between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty.
Updating beliefs in the light of new evidence. The foundation of statistical inference.
Draw without replacement. How does each draw reshape the odds?
“Probability is the very guide of life.”
— Cicero
As trials increase, the sample mean converges to the expected value. Certainty emerges from chaos.
A correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat over the “problem of points” laid the foundation for the mathematical theory of probability. What began as a gambling question became the language of uncertainty itself.
Each step: equally likely up or down. Click to regenerate.
The long-run average value of repetitions of the same experiment.