economic.day

WHAT THE MARKET WON'T TELL YOU.

THE CRYSTAL INDEX

SUPPLY
Upward pressure curve
DEMAND
Inverse price elasticity
EQUILIBRIUM
Market clearing point

THE NOISE FLOOR

Inflation is not a number. It is a transfer of wealth from those who save to those who borrow.

CPI: +6.2%

Every central bank decision is a confession that the previous decision was insufficient.

RATE: 5.25%

GDP measures activity, not welfare. A hurricane raises GDP. Think about that.

GDP: +2.1%

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

VIX: 34.7

Debt is future consumption brought to the present. The future always arrives.

DEBT/GDP: 121%

THE CRYSTALLINE FORECAST

Markets crystallize around consensus. Consensus is temporary.

Each facet reflects a different assumption about growth.

Pressure creates structure. Structure creates fragility.

economic.day

TOMORROW IS ANOTHER ECONOMIC DAY.