bability.pro
01 establishing shot

PROBABILITY

bability.pro

probability · capability · potential

scroll · playback
SCENE · 02

A theater of data.

Three panels play simultaneously, each cut to a different rhythm. Together they chart how likelihoods collide, concentrate, and cascade.

A/01

Bayesian
bar chart

Posterior beliefs fill in after evidence arrives. Borders draw; then the bars flood.

prior
0.32
evidence
0.58
posterior
0.81
likelihood
0.47
B/02

Decision
coral

Every fork thickens along the route probability takes. Branches thin toward rarity.

C/03

Law of
large numbers

The average stops wandering. A long exposure of a fair coin, held still.

Pr(event) is the weight we give a future ◉ it bends, it breathes, it converges with evidence ◉ every outcome leaves a footprint ◉ every footprint predicts the next
— theorem 03 · marquee take
SCENE · 04

A gallery of
distributions.

Bell curves become topography. Scatter plots become starfields. Below the surface, a hundred thousand simulated points arrange themselves into the shapes nature keeps drawing.

FIG 04·A Gaussian, μ=200, σ=50
FIG 04·B Log-normal, heavy right tail
FIG 04·C Ridgeline stack · six conditional distributions
SCENE · 05

Throw darts at the unknown.

A Monte Carlo estimator scatters points into a square and counts the ones that fall inside its inscribed circle. The ratio × 4 approaches π. Randomness, repeated, becomes precision.

Estimated π
0.00000
Points thrown
0
Inside circle
0
Error
—

— end of reel —

The future is a probability field.

Every path is weighted. Every outcome, possible.

Written & directed by

P(A|B) · Thomas Bayes · 1763

Cinematography

f(x) = (1/σ√2π) · e−(x−μ)²/2σ²

E[X] = ∫ x · p(x) dx

Var(X) = E[X²] − (E[X])²

Simulation

Mersenne Twister · 2^19937 − 1

Monte Carlo · after Stanisław Ulam

Acknowledgments

Central Limit Theorem · Law of Large Numbers

Every fair coin that ever landed

Produced by

bability.pro

no photographs were used in this production